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Kalshi Prices December 2026 at Zero, 2027 at Minus One
by 6Charts TeamCategory: news8 min read
This desk's editor fetched https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXGTA6&limit=200 at HTTP 200 and 14,537 bytes at 2026-10-05T04:02:10Z, returning eight markets all carrying event_ticker GTA6. CONFIRMED by that fetch, rung by rung: GTA6-26JUL31, KXGTA6-26AUG31 and KXGTA6-26SEP30 finalized at 0.0100 last with 0.0000 bid and 1.0000 ask; KXGTA6-26OCT31 active at 0.0100 last, 0.0000 bid, 0.0100 ask, 10,584.64 volume and 337,924.36 open interest; KXGTA6-26NOV30 and GTA6-26DEC31 both active at 0.9400 last, 0.9300 bid and 0.9400 ask; KXGTA6-27JUL01 active at 0.9800 last and 0.9800 bid; and KXGTA6-28JAN01 active at 0.9700 last and 0.9700 bid. This desk's own arithmetic, two incoherences: the November and December 2026 rungs are identical on last, bid and ask, so the ladder assigns the whole of December 2026 zero percentage points; and the 1 July 2027 rung prices a cent above the strictly weaker 1 January 2028 rung on both last and bid, so the implied probability of a ship between 1 July 2027 and 1 January 2028 is minus one percentage point, which is not a quantity that can exist. Also CONFIRMED: all eight carry expected_expiration_time 2026-11-19T11:00:00Z, which on four rungs is later than that market's own latest_expiration_time by 109 days 21 hours, 78 days 21 hours, 48 days 21 hours and 17 days 21 hours, all four gaps this desk's own arithmetic; all eight carry occurrence_datetime 2026-09-01T15:00:00Z, 33 days 13 hours 2 minutes 39 seconds stale at the fetch; all eight titles begin with the same typo, verbatim "WIll GTA6 be released by Oct 31, 2026?"; two ticker namespaces sit in one event; rules_primary names no resolution source at all while naming PS5, Xbox Series X/S and Windows as qualifying platforms; and rules_secondary is a Rockstar non-endorsement disclaimer, transcribed verbatim. FIGURE CORRECTION printed: researcher 3 read the ladder at 03:16:35Z and the editor at 04:02:10Z, the 24 hour volumes moved between the two readings, NOV30 from 6,000.51 to 5,645.92, DEC31 from 2,727.59 to 2,721.77 and 27JUL01 from 959.74 to 645.60, and the editor's figures govern because a 24 hour volume is a rolling window that will not reproduce. DESK INFERENCE, labelled: Kalshi's rule names Windows as one of three qualifying platforms while ESRB certificate 41627 names PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series only. LIMITS printed in full: one instant only, and a ladder re-sorts itself; the negative probability is NOT a claim that a riskless arbitrage existed, because buying the 2028 yes at its 0.9900 ask while selling the 2027 yes at its 0.9800 bid costs a cent; the editor did not establish what Kalshi documents occurrence_datetime and expected_expiration_time to mean, and they are reported as returned; volume_fp and open_interest_fp are Kalshi's own fixed point fields, reported as contracts and not dollars; and a market price is never a forecast this desk endorses. rockstargames.com/robots.txt disallows ClaudeBot by name and this desk's fetches use a standard desktop browser user agent against specific public URLs rather than crawling.
Kalshi lists eight Grand Theft Auto VI release date contracts under one event. Read as a ladder, two of its rungs price the whole of December 2026 at zero and two more price the second half of 2027 at minus one percentage point. A probability cannot be negative. This desk's editor pulled all eight markets in one call and computed both figures itself.
CONFIRMED. The editor fetched https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXGTA6&limit=200 at HTTP 200 and 14,537 bytes at 2026-10-05T04:02:10Z. Eight markets came back, all carrying event_ticker: GTA6.
The ladder, as the editor read it
TickerStatusLastYes bidYes askVolume 24hOpen interest
GTA6-26JUL31finalized0.01000.00001.00000.00235,605.87
KXGTA6-26AUG31finalized0.01000.00001.00000.0050,144.86
KXGTA6-26SEP30finalized0.01000.00001.00000.00165,979.11
KXGTA6-26OCT31active0.01000.00000.010010,584.64337,924.36
KXGTA6-26NOV30active0.94000.93000.94005,645.92326,524.23
GTA6-26DEC31active0.94000.93000.94002,721.77235,257.33
KXGTA6-27JUL01active0.98000.98000.9900645.6045,371.55
KXGTA6-28JAN01active0.97000.97000.99001,464.0036,160.85
FIGURE CORRECTION, printed because the desk prints them. Researcher 3 read this ladder at 2026-10-05T03:16:35Z and the editor at 04:02:10Z. The 24 hour volume field moved between the two readings: KXGTA6-26NOV30 from 6,000.51 to 5,645.92, GTA6-26DEC31 from 2,727.59 to 2,721.77 and KXGTA6-27JUL01 from 959.74 to 645.60. The editor's figures govern. A 24 hour volume is a rolling window and these numbers will not reproduce for anybody who fetches later. Last trades, bids, asks and open interest were identical in both readings.
The first incoherence: December 2026 is free
This desk's own arithmetic, computed by the editor. The contract resolving on whether the game ships by 30 November 2026 last traded at 0.9400. The contract resolving on whether it ships by 31 December 2026 last traded at 0.9400. Both yes bids read 0.9300 and both yes asks read 0.9400. Subtract one from the other and the ladder assigns the whole month of December 2026 a probability of zero percentage points. The bids reproduce the same result, so this is not an artefact of two stale prints at different moments.
The second incoherence: a negative probability
The contract on shipping by 1 July 2027 last traded at 0.9800. The contract on shipping by 1 January 2028 last traded at 0.9700. The later contract is strictly weaker, because anything that ships by July 2027 has also shipped by January 2028, and yet it prices one cent lower. The bids invert in the same direction, 0.9800 against 0.9700. The implied probability of a ship landing between 1 July 2027 and 1 January 2028 is therefore minus one percentage point, which is this desk's own arithmetic and which is not a quantity that can exist.
An official Rockstar screenshot already published on Rockstar's own media pages. It is published artwork and has no connection to any exchange, contract or price in this article.
The expiration field contradicts itself on four rungs
CONFIRMED by the editor: all eight markets carry expected_expiration_time: 2026-11-19T11:00:00Z. On four of them that is later than the market's own latest_expiration_time. The gaps below are this desk's own arithmetic.
Tickerlatest_expiration_timeGap behind the shared expected_expiration_time
GTA6-26JUL312026-08-01T14:00:00Z109 days 21 hours
KXGTA6-26AUG312026-09-01T14:00:00Z78 days 21 hours
KXGTA6-26SEP302026-10-01T14:00:00Z48 days 21 hours
KXGTA6-26OCT312026-11-01T14:00:00Z17 days 21 hours
More field oddities, all read off the same response
All eight markets carry occurrence_datetime: 2026-09-01T15:00:00Z, which at the editor's fetch was 33 days 13 hours 2 minutes 39 seconds stale by this desk's own arithmetic, including on the rungs that close in 2027 and 2028.
Every one of the eight titles carries the same typo in second position. Verbatim: WIll GTA6 be released by Oct 31, 2026?. All eight begin WIll.
Two ticker namespaces sit inside one event. GTA6-26JUL31 and GTA6-26DEC31 use the short prefix while the other six use KXGTA6-, and all eight share event_ticker: GTA6.
rules_primary names no resolution source at all. Verbatim from KXGTA6-26OCT31: If GTA 6 (Grand Theft Auto VI) has been released on a major platform (PS5, Xbox Series X/S, Windows) by Oct 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. There is no named arbiter, no named publication and no named feed anywhere in that sentence.
rules_secondary is a disclaimer, verbatim: This market and these products have not been endorsed by Rockstar Games. Any references to Rockstar Games, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Rockstar Games and Kalshi.
One place the rule and the rating record do not line up
This desk's inference, labelled as such. Kalshi's rule names Windows as one of three qualifying major platforms. ESRB certificate 41627, which this desk's editor read at HTTP 200 and 62,499 bytes at 2026-10-05T03:50:24Z, lists gamePlatform as PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series only. One third of the exchange's qualifying platform list has no rating record on that certificate. That is an observation about two documents sitting side by side. It is not a claim about Rockstar's plans, and the absence of Windows PC from a metadata field is not a denial by anyone. The full certificate reading is the lead of this cycle on the news index.
Limits, stated plainly
One instant, 04:02:10Z. A ladder re-sorts itself as it trades. Both incoherences above were present at that moment and may not survive the next trade. Anybody re-running the call will get different volumes and may get different prices.
This is not an arbitrage claim. The negative probability is computed from last traded prices and reproduced by the bids. It is not a claim that a riskless trade existed. Buying the 2028 yes at its 0.9900 ask while selling the 2027 yes at its 0.9800 bid costs a cent, so the spread eats the discrepancy.
The date fields are reported, not interpreted. The editor did not establish what Kalshi documents occurrence_datetime and expected_expiration_time to mean. They are printed exactly as the API returned them, and the gaps are arithmetic on those raw values.
Contracts, not dollars. volume_fp and open_interest_fp are Kalshi's own fixed point fields. Every volume and open interest figure above is reported as contracts and not as dollars.
A market price is never a forecast this desk endorses. Nothing on this ladder comes from Rockstar, from Take-Two or from any rating board, and the exchange's own rule names no resolution source. These are the opinions of traders, priced, and this desk endorses none of them.
Retrieval method, disclosed. rockstargames.com/robots.txt disallows ClaudeBot by name. Every fetch by this desk, including the Kalshi call above, uses a standard desktop browser user agent against a specific public URL rather than crawling, and this desk discloses that in every batch.