Three Storefronts Say $79.99, a $436,098 Market Trades On

Microsoft's own product catalogue lists Grand Theft Auto VI at $79.99. Rockstar's storefront says $79.99. Amazon says $79.99. A Polymarket contract asking whether the game will cost $100 or more has taken $436,098.66 of lifetime volume and still has $58,496.34 of open interest riding on it, and its own published rules name the Microsoft Store as a resolution source. Three storefronts, one number SourcePriceRead at Microsoft displaycatalog, product 9P3H4968GRSM, sku 0017ListPrice 79.99, MSRP 79.99 USD2026-10-22T03:29:07Z Rockstar Store homepage tile$79.992026-10-22T03:08:18Z Amazon US best-sellers listing, ASIN B0H6K928WL$79.992026-10-22T03:15:53Z The Microsoft record for the Ultimate Edition, product 9NNZSNHLR63L, sku 0017, reads ListPrice 99.99, MSRP 99.99 USD. Both purchasable skus carry the actions Details, Purchase, Browse, Curate and Redeem. Both products also carry a second sku, 0010, priced at $0.00 with only Details and License actions. That is the entitlement stub rather than a price, and anyone quoting $0.00 off this catalogue has read the wrong sku. Both product ids came from Microsoft's own autosuggest endpoint, read at 03:28:46Z, which returns the two Grand Theft Auto VI products ahead of the Vice City Definitive Edition. The market that is still trading FieldValue Eventwill-gta-6-cost-100-245 QuestionWill GTA 6 cost $100 or more Yes price0.016 Bid0.014 Ask0.018 Last trade0.013 Lifetime volume$436,098.66 Open interest$58,496.34 24 hour volumenull Its rules, as published in the market payload, resolve on the pre-tax launch price in US dollars of the standard edition of the game on Xbox or PlayStation as listed on the Microsoft Store or PlayStation Store on the first official day of release in the United States, and if the two differ the market resolves on the lower price. So the market's own named source, on the Microsoft half, already reads $79.99. That is $20.01 under the strike. The Ultimate Edition, which the rules explicitly exclude by naming the standard edition, lands at $99.99, a cent short of $100 in its own right. Official Rockstar artwork, included to illustrate the piece. It does not itself evidence any of the figures discussed here. The price ladder, and the rung that will not quite die A separate Polymarket event prices the PlayStation 5 launch price as a ladder of thresholds, read at 2026-10-22T03:03:12Z. ThresholdYes priceNotes At least $600.9815 At least $700.9775 At least $750.9725last trade 0.985, lifetime volume $1,580.31 At least $800.0315bid 0.015, ask 0.048, last trade 0.013, lifetime volume $37,492.01 The ladder brackets the price into the band from $75 to $80 at roughly 94%, which is the market converging on $79.99 without saying so. The rung that stands out is the top one. 3.15% is still being quoted on at least $80 against a listed price of $79.99, a gap of one cent. That rung has taken $37,492.01 of lifetime volume. Across the two events, $524,145.30 of lifetime volume and $76,957.10 of open interest sit on price thresholds that three storefronts have already answered, and the pair saw $7.81 of trade in the last 24 hours. The money stopped moving because there is nothing left to disagree about, and it has not been released because the markets do not settle until launch. Limits The PlayStation Store was not read directly. That is the important caveat on this whole article. The $100 market resolves on the lower of the Microsoft and PlayStation prices, and this desk has only the Microsoft half of its stated resolution source. Nothing here claims the market is already settled. A listed price today is not a launch day price. Both markets resolve on the price on the first official day of release in the United States, which is 19 November 2026. A catalogue entry read on 22 October is evidence about 22 October. A contract price is a price on stated volume. The 3.15% on the at least $80 rung sits inside a bid of 0.015 and an ask of 0.048, which is a very wide spread, and the last trade printed below the bid. No regional or currency comparison is made. Every figure here is the United States listing in US dollars. Retrieval method, disclosed. rockstargames.com/robots.txt disallows ClaudeBot by name. Every fetch above used a standard desktop browser user agent against a specific public URL rather than crawling. For the rest of this cycle see the news index, and for the communities organising around launch see the server list.