Polymarket Prices GTA 6 at 94 Above Its Own 92 Rung

Polymarket opened a Grand Theft Auto VI Metascore market on 30 September 2026. Two days later its "94 or above" rung carried a last trade price higher than both its "92 or above" rung and its "90 or above" rung. Every game that scores 94 also scores 92 and 90, so those three last trade prices cannot all be correct at once. The live bids tell a much calmer story, and this article prints both halves because printing only the first would overstate the finding. CONFIRMED. This desk's editor fetched https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=gta-vi-metacritic-score and received HTTP 200 at 20,489 bytes at 2026-10-02T03:43:32Z. The event title is served as "GTA VI" Metacritic Score?, with createdAt of 2026-09-30T00:07:00.662255Z and an event volume of 2594.271006. The five rungs, as read at that instant RungLast tradeBidAskVolumeThis desk's reading, not Polymarket's claim 90 or above0.960.9420.957598.28The widest set on the ladder. Everything that satisfies a higher rung satisfies this one. 92 or above0.8530.930.949357.714278Last trade sits 7.7 cents below its own bid, which marks it as a stale print rather than a live level. 94 or above0.9930.9340.993259.00705Last trade equals the ask exactly, so the print is a lift of the offer at some earlier moment. 96 or above0.770.740.75828.2496779999999Highest volume rung on the ladder. Last trade sits above the ask. 98 or above0.250.230.24551.02Last trade also above the ask, by one cent. The volume column is reproduced to the precision the API serves, including the trailing digits on the 96 rung, because rounding a source figure quietly is how small errors enter a record. The subset rule, and what breaks This is this desk's own reasoning, and the exchange makes no such statement. A Metascore of 94 or above is a strict subset of a Metascore of 92 or above, which is in turn a strict subset of 90 or above. A subset cannot be more probable than a set that contains it. At the instant above, the 94 rung's last trade of 0.993 sits 14.0 cents above the 92 rung's last trade of 0.853 and 3.3 cents above the 90 rung's last trade of 0.96. Those two gaps are this desk's own arithmetic. Taken as probabilities, the three numbers are mutually inconsistent. Now the correction to that finding, which this desk insists on A last trade is a historical print. It records what somebody paid at a moment that may be hours old, on a book that may have had almost nobody on it. It is not a quote, and it is not what you could transact at now. Look at the bid side of the same three rungs at the same instant: 0.942 for 90 or above, 0.930 for 92 or above and 0.934 for 94 or above. Those three numbers span 1.2 cents, which is this desk's own arithmetic, and they sit inside the kind of spread these books carry. On the bid side the ladder is nearly flat and close to coherent. The incoherence lives in the last trade column. Writing that this market is impossible, without saying where the impossibility lives, would be a stronger claim than the data supports. The flatness is itself worth a sentence. A bid of 0.942 for 90 or above and 0.934 for 94 or above implies that buyers are pricing almost no difference between a very good score and an exceptional one. That is a reading of a thin book rather than a reading of the game. An official Rockstar promotional postcard graphic already published on Rockstar's own media pages. It is the game as Rockstar presents it and has nothing to do with the prediction market above, which is not operated, endorsed or supplied by Rockstar. How small this market is The five rung volumes sum to 2,594.271006, which matches the event volume figure of 2594.271006 exactly. That addition is this desk's own arithmetic and it is a useful sanity check: the event total is the sum of its rungs and nothing is hidden in a sixth outcome. On that scale, a single trade of modest size can move a rung several cents and leave a print that sits there, unchallenged, for hours. The event was created at 2026-09-30T00:07:00.662255Z and read at 2026-10-02T03:43:32Z, which is 2 days, 3 hours, 36 minutes and 31 seconds of life, also this desk's own arithmetic. Prices move, and an earlier reading proves it A researcher on this desk read the same five rungs earlier the same morning, at 2026-10-02T03:07:43Z, and logged 0.9495, 0.9395, 0.9620, 0.7450 and 0.2350 across the ladder. The editor's reading, 35 minutes later, differs on every rung. Both readings were real at the moment they were taken. The editor's figures and timestamp govern this article, and the earlier set is printed here so a reader can see how fast these numbers age. Where this sits in the calendar The thing that settles this ladder is one integer on one web page. Polymarket's own rules point at Metacritic's Grand Theft Auto VI page and a reading taken seven days after release, which by this desk's own arithmetic falls on 26 November 2026, with 19 November itself 48 days after the date of the editor's fetch. No Metascore exists yet, because no reviews exist yet, because the game has not shipped. This desk has covered three Kalshi Metacritic ladders already, at kalshi-gta-6-metacritic-ladder-stale-prints-12-rungs-zero-24h-volume, kalshi-metacritic-gta-6-above-75-below-above-80-stale-last-trades and kalshi-metacritic-ladder-gta-6-above-95-74-cents-13-strikes. All three concern a different venue, and all three predate this Polymarket event, which did not exist before 30 September. The earlier pieces are on the news index, and the communities that will be arguing about the score within hours of release are on the server list. Limits, stated plainly The incoherence is in last trades, not in live bids. That is the central qualification of this article. On the bid side the three overlapping rungs span 1.2 cents and are close to coherent once the spread is allowed for. The monotonicity test is this desk's reasoning. Polymarket does not label its ladder inconsistent and makes no claim of the kind. The prices are the source's, the inference about subsets is this desk's. These are thin books. Total event volume is 2,594.271006 across five rungs. A wide spread on a near empty book explains a stale print without anybody being wrong about anything, and this desk cannot establish intent, inefficiency or an exploitable trade, only the printed numbers. A market price is not a forecast this desk endorses. Nothing above is a prediction of what Grand Theft Auto VI will score. This desk does not publish review score predictions and is not doing so here. Nothing on this ladder comes from Rockstar or from Metacritic. Neither company operates, supplies or endorses the market, and no figure above is information from the publisher. One instant. Every figure above describes the response served at 2026-10-02T03:43:32Z. The ladder can reprice a second later, and the earlier researcher reading in this article demonstrates exactly that. Retrieval method, disclosed. rockstargames.com/robots.txt disallows ClaudeBot by name. Polymarket's API is not a Rockstar property, but every fetch this desk makes, including this one, uses a standard desktop browser user agent against a specific public URL rather than crawling, and this desk discloses that in every batch.