Kalshi Prices GTA 6 Above a 95 Metascore at 74 Cents

Kalshi's Metacritic ladder for Grand Theft Auto VI prices the "Above 95" contract at 74 cents on 5,026.93 contracts of volume, and "Above 90" at 90 cents. Thirteen strikes sit on that ladder, every one of them created at the same second on 27 August 2026, and every one of them closes on 26 November 2026. This desk read all thirteen out of the exchange's own API. CONFIRMED. This desk's editor fetched https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?event_ticker=KXMC-GTA6&limit=200 and received HTTP 200 at 23,602 bytes at 2026-09-28T03:26:13Z. The response holds 13 markets under the title "Grand Theft Auto VI Metacritic score?". All 13 were created at 2026-08-27T16:35:19Z and all 13 close at 2026-11-26T15:00:00Z. The full ladder StrikeLastBidAskVolumeOpen interest Above 950.74000.72000.74005,026.933,308.23 Above 900.90000.90000.94002,018.101,747.42 Above 850.90000.91000.9600524.06385.03 Above 800.84000.92000.95001,083.911,083.91 Above 750.82000.94000.97005.005.00 Above 700.82000.96000.970067.4236.21 Above 650.98000.98001.00004,711.393,475.00 Above 600.97000.97001.00001,447.981,367.80 Above 500.97000.97001.00001,183.411,005.00 Above 400.97000.98001.00002,301.791,205.00 Above 300.97000.98001.00002,368.791,221.00 Above 200.98000.98001.00002,313.791,220.00 Above 100.97000.98001.00005,451.793,197.79 How the market settles The rule text on the Above 30 strike reads, verbatim: "If the Metascore for Grand Theft Auto VI is Above 30 seven days after release at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes." Two things follow from that sentence. Settlement is pegged to a moment seven days after release, not to a review embargo lifting. And the measurement is a Metascore, which is Metacritic's aggregate, rather than any individual review. The close time of 2026-11-26T15:00:00Z is 7 days after 19 November 2026 and 59 days after this fetch. Both intervals are this desk's own arithmetic. Kalshi also carries its own disclaimer on the market, verbatim: "This market and these products have not been endorsed by metacritic." That is the exchange's own wording, lower-case company name included, and it is quoted as printed. The 16 cent step The interesting number on the ladder is the gap between the top two strikes. Above 90 last traded at 0.90 and Above 95 last traded at 0.74. The step is 16 cents, which is this desk's own arithmetic. Read on the bids, which are the cleaner series, Above 90 bids 0.9000 and Above 95 bids 0.7200, a step of 18 cents, also this desk's own arithmetic. That is where the market puts its uncertainty: between a very high score and an exceptional one. The strikes from Above 10 through Above 65 all bid at 0.97 or 0.98, which is a market saying the question of whether Grand Theft Auto VI reviews competently is not in play. The non-monotone last prices, and why they are not a mispricing Read the Last column down the table and it misbehaves. Above 80 last traded at 0.8400, which sits below Above 65 at 0.9800, even though clearing 80 is strictly harder than clearing 65. Above 75 and Above 70 both last traded at 0.8200, below several harder strikes. This is not a mispricing and this desk is not calling it one. A last price is whatever that individual strike last traded at, whenever that was. The thin strikes traded long ago and their prints are stale. The bids tell the real story, and the bids are monotone and sane: 0.72, 0.90, 0.91, 0.92, 0.94, 0.96, 0.98, 0.97, 0.97, 0.98, 0.98, 0.98, 0.98 reading from Above 95 down, which rises as the strikes get easier and stays there. Anyone presenting the Last column as an arbitrage has misread what the column is. The clearest illustration is Above 75. It has traded 5 contracts in total since the market opened on 27 August. Five. Its last price is a single small print from an unknown moment and it carries no information about what anybody thinks today. Limits Nothing on this ladder comes from Rockstar or from Metacritic. Rockstar has announced no review embargo date and Metacritic has published no score. The strikes are contracts between traders, priced by traders, and they contain no information from either company. Kalshi's own disclaimer applies. The exchange states that the market is not endorsed by metacritic. Nobody should read the ladder as Metacritic forecasting itself. Settlement on 26 November assumes a Metascore exists by then. A Metascore requires a minimum number of aggregated critic reviews. If reviews arrive late, or if the aggregate has not populated by 10:00 ET on 26 November, the settlement rule as written runs into a condition it does not address. The volumes are small in absolute terms. The largest book on the ladder is Above 10 at 5,451.79 contracts, and the top strike sits on 5,026.93. Those are not deep markets, and the 16 cent and 18 cent steps above are arithmetic on prices that a few thousand contracts set. Volumes are contract counts, not dollars. The figures in the table are as the API serves them and must not be converted to dollar volumes. A price is not a review score. Grand Theft Auto VI has not been reviewed. With 52 days to 19 November 2026, which is this desk's own arithmetic, no critic has played the shipped game, and a 74 cent contract is a bet rather than an assessment. This site's news index carries what is actually confirmed. Retrieval method, disclosed. rockstargames.com/robots.txt disallows a named list of automated agents, ClaudeBot among them, and this desk's fetches use a standard desktop browser user agent. The Kalshi endpoint is a public API rather than a Rockstar property, and the practice is disclosed in every batch regardless. Finally, every figure in the table describes the ladder as served at 2026-09-28T03:26:13Z. Prices move. Re-fetch rather than reprint.