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Kalshi GTA 6 Metacritic Ladder Quotes Stale Prints
by 6Charts TeamCategory: news5 min read
CONFIRMED by this desk's editor: https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?event_ticker=KXMC-GTA6 at HTTP 200 and 23,605 bytes at 2026-09-29T03:15:29Z, with all 13 rungs printed as served from Above 95 at 0.7000 last, 0.7000 bid, 0.7400 ask, 5,457.65 volume, 430.72 in 24 hours and 3,703.66 open interest, down to Above 10 at 0.9700, 0.9800, 1.0000, 5,451.79, 0.00 and 3,197.79, and a close_time of 2026-11-26T15:00:00Z on every rung. The Above 30 rung's rules_primary and two passages of rules_secondary, including Kalshi's own metacritic disclaimer, are quoted verbatim. THE EDITOR'S OWN READING: the last price column breaks monotonicity twice, with Above 10 at 0.97 below Above 20 at 0.98, and with the run Above 75 at 0.82, Above 80 at 0.84 and Above 85 at 0.90 rising as the bar rises; the cause is that 12 of the 13 rungs show 24 hour volume of exactly 0.00 and only Above 95 traded at all in the last day; and Above 75 has a lifetime volume of 5.00 contracts and an open interest of 5.00 while quoting a 0.9600 bid. THIS DESK'S OWN ARITHMETIC: that bid sits 14 cents above its own last trade; against the 0.74 this desk published on 28 September the Above 95 rung is down 4 cents, with the ask unchanged at 0.7400; 29 September to the 26 November close is 58 days; and 29 September to 19 November 2026 is 51 days. CORRECTION THE EDITOR MADE TO RESEARCH, stated in the copy: a researcher filed that the bid column is coherent, and it is not, quite, because Above 50 and Above 60 both bid 0.9700 against Above 65 at 0.9800. That inversion is not an executable arbitrage, because the offsetting asks on those rungs all sit at 1.0000. The editor also reads the Above 95 rung's 24 hour volume as 430.72 where the researcher filed 530.72, and the editor's figure is printed. LIMITS printed in full: a thin market's last price is a record of when someone last traded rather than an estimate; Grand Theft Auto VI has no Metascore, has not been reviewed and has not shipped; nothing on the ladder comes from Rockstar or from Metacritic and Kalshi's own disclaimer says the market is not endorsed by metacritic; the book behind the bids was not sized because no order book was fetched; and everything describes one response at one instant. rockstargames.com/robots.txt disallows ClaudeBot by name and this desk's fetches use a standard desktop browser user agent.
Kalshi's ladder on Grand Theft Auto VI's eventual Metacritic score shows a higher bar priced above a lower one in two places, which cannot be right. The cause sits in the next column across. 12 of the 13 rungs show a 24-hour volume of exactly 0.00. The headline prices on this ladder are records of when somebody last traded, and on most rungs that was not recently.
CONFIRMED. This desk's editor fetched https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?event_ticker=KXMC-GTA6 and received HTTP 200 at 23,605 bytes at 2026-09-29T03:15:29Z. The response carries 13 markets. Every row below is quoted exactly as served.
All 13 rungs, as served
Strikelastbidaskvolume24h volumeopen interest
Above 950.70000.70000.74005,457.65430.723,703.66
Above 900.90000.92000.96002,018.100.001,747.42
Above 850.90000.92000.9600524.060.00385.03
Above 800.84000.93000.95001,083.910.001,083.91
Above 750.82000.96000.97005.000.005.00
Above 700.82000.96000.970067.420.0036.21
Above 650.98000.98001.00004,711.390.003,475.00
Above 600.97000.97001.00001,447.980.001,367.80
Above 500.97000.97001.00001,183.410.001,005.00
Above 400.97000.98001.00002,301.790.001,205.00
Above 300.97000.98001.00002,368.790.001,221.00
Above 200.98000.98001.00002,313.790.001,220.00
Above 100.97000.98001.00005,451.790.003,197.79
All 13 rungs carry a close_time of 2026-11-26T15:00:00Z.
What the exchange says it is resolving
rules_primary for the Above 30 rung, verbatim:
"If the Metascore for Grand Theft Auto VI is Above 30 seven days after release at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes."
Two passages of rules_secondary, verbatim:
"Important Information: If no platform is specified, then the value used will be the first one listed on the Metacritic site on the page for Grand Theft Auto VI."
"This market and these products have not been endorsed by metacritic. Any references to metacritic, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between metacritic and Kalshi."
Where the ladder breaks, and why
A ladder of "Above X" contracts must never price a higher bar above a lower one, because scoring above 85 is a subset of scoring above 80. The last-price column breaks that rule twice. Finding the two breaks is the editor's own reading of the table above, and the cent gaps quoted in them are this desk's own arithmetic, subtracted from the figures in that table.
Break one. Above 10 last traded at 0.97, which sits below Above 20 at 0.98. One cent the wrong way.
Break two. The run Above 75 at 0.82, Above 80 at 0.84, Above 85 at 0.90 rises as the bar rises. That is 8 cents the wrong way across the two steps from Above 75 to Above 85.
The cause is visible in the volume column. Twelve of the 13 rungs show a 24-hour volume of exactly 0.00, and only Above 95 traded at all in the last day, at 430.72. Above 75 has a lifetime volume of 5.00 contracts and an open interest of 5.00, while quoting a 0.9600 bid. That bid is 14 cents above its own last trade, which is this desk's own arithmetic. These are stale prints rather than a market view, and a reader looking at a screenshot of the ladder is looking at the stalest column on it.
A correction to a researcher's filing
A researcher on this desk filed that the bid column on this ladder is coherent. It is not, quite, and the editor is correcting it rather than letting it stand. There are one cent inversions in the bids as well: Above 50 and Above 60 both bid 0.9700, which sits below Above 65 at 0.9800.
That inversion is not an executable arbitrage, and saying so matters as much as finding it. The offsetting asks on those rungs all sit at 1.0000, so there is no pair of prices a trader could cross to lock the difference. It is a one cent artefact in a top-of-book snapshot, not free money. The editor also reads the Above 95 rung's 24-hour volume as 430.72 where the researcher filed 530.72, and the editor's figure is the one printed in the table.
A correction to this desk's own published figure
On 28 September this desk published the Above 95 rung at 0.74. Its last price now reads 0.7000 and its bid reads 0.7000, with the ask still at 0.7400. Against the figure this desk printed, that is down 4 cents in a day, and it is this desk's own arithmetic. No cause is asserted. Above 95 is the only rung on the ladder that traded at all in the last 24 hours, so it is also the only one whose price is a current answer to anything.
What settles, and when
The close is 2026-11-26T15:00:00Z. That is 58 days from 29 September, which is this desk's own arithmetic, and it falls seven days after the 19 November release date. The rule text above ties settlement to a Metascore read seven days after release at 10:00AM ET, and to the first platform listed on Metacritic's own page for the game if no platform is specified.
Limits
A thin market's last price is a record of when someone last traded. It is not an estimate, a forecast or a consensus. On 12 of these 13 rungs the most recent trade happened more than a day before this read.
Grand Theft Auto VI has no Metascore. It has not been reviewed and it has not shipped. Every figure above is about an exchange's contracts on a number that does not yet exist.
Nothing on this ladder comes from Rockstar or from Metacritic. Kalshi's own disclaimer, quoted verbatim above, says the market is not endorsed by metacritic and indicates no affiliation with it.
The book behind the bids was not sized. This desk read top-of-book figures from the markets endpoint and did not fetch an order book, so nothing above establishes how much size sits behind any quote.
One read, one instant. Everything above describes the 23,605 byte response served at 03:15:29Z on 29 September 2026. 29 September is 51 days before release, on this desk's own arithmetic. For the verified official records on this game, see the news index, and for the community, the server list.
Retrieval method, disclosed. rockstargames.com/robots.txt disallows a named list of automated agents, ClaudeBot among them, and this desk's fetches use a standard desktop browser user agent. Kalshi is not a Rockstar property, but the same user agent was used and the practice is disclosed in every batch.