A Kalshi GTA 6 Release Contract Has Settled NO

A Kalshi contract asking whether Grand Theft Auto VI would be released by 30 September 2026 has finalised with a result of NO. Settlement landed at 17:08:04Z on 1 October 2026, which is 13 hours 9 minutes and 4 seconds after the market closed and 3 hours 8 minutes and 4 seconds after its stated expiration time. The contract had been open since 12 May 2026, traded 228,562.60 contracts in its life and left 165,979.11 in open interest at settlement. This is a matter of record and involves no forecast. CONFIRMED. This desk's editor fetched https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/KXGTA6-26SEP30 and received HTTP 200 at 1,880 bytes at 2026-10-02T03:59:43Z. Every field below was read off that response, and every one of them matches the reading filed independently by a researcher on this desk. The settlement record, field by field FieldValue, as servedThis desk's reading, not Kalshi's claim ticker and event_tickerKXGTA6-26SEP30, GTA6One dated rung on the exchange's Grand Theft Auto VI release ladder. titleWIll GTA6 be released by Sep 30, 2026?The capital I in "WIll" is Kalshi's own typo and is reproduced exactly as served rather than silently corrected. subtitle, yes_sub_title, no_sub_titleBy Sep 30, 2026; Before October 2026; Before October 2026Both sides of the book carry the same subtitle string. status and resultfinalized, noThe contract is closed and settled. The question was answered in the negative. settlement_value_dollars0.0000The YES side paid nothing. settlement_ts2026-10-01T17:08:04.015836ZThe moment of settlement, to microseconds. updated_time2026-10-01T17:08:04.331046Z316 milliseconds after the settlement stamp. close_time2026-10-01T03:59:00ZTrading stopped here, a minute before 04:00Z. expiration_time2026-10-01T14:00:00ZThe stated expiration, ten hours after the close. expected_expiration_time2026-11-19T11:00:00ZStill carries the release date instant, which is now in the contract's future and irrelevant to a settled market. created_time and open_time2026-05-12T17:46:59.149067Z, 2026-05-12T23:00:00ZListed and then opened for trading on the same day in May. volume_fp, volume_24h_fp228562.60, 0.00Lifetime volume, and nothing in the final 24 hours. open_interest_fp165979.11Positions still open when the contract settled. last_price_dollars, previous_price_dollars0.0100, 0.0100The YES side was trading at a cent and had been. market_type, settlement_timer_secondsbinary, 3600A one hour settlement timer, which the actual settlement overshot substantially. early_close_conditionIf this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.A conditional that did not apply, because the event did not occur. The rule that settled it Verbatim, Kalshi's primary rule text: "If GTA 6 (Grand Theft Auto VI) has been released on a major platform (PS5, Xbox Series X/S, Windows) by Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes." The game was not released on any of those platforms by that date. The contract resolved NO, and the resolution needed no judgement call. Note what the rule names: three platforms, Windows among them, which is a listing by the exchange and not a statement by Rockstar about a Windows version. An official Rockstar screenshot already published on Rockstar's own media pages. It is the game whose non arrival settled the contract above. It is not a market screenshot, not a chart and not evidence of anything in the settlement record. The settlement lag, measured This desk's own arithmetic, computed from the timestamps in the response. Settlement at 17:08:04Z on 1 October came 13 hours, 9 minutes and 4 seconds after the 03:59:00Z close, and 3 hours, 8 minutes and 4 seconds after the 14:00:00Z expiration time. The contract's own settlement_timer_seconds field reads 3600, so the actual settlement arrived roughly twelve hours later than a one hour timer alone would suggest. The market had been open since 12 May 2026, which is 142 days before settlement. None of that lag is presented here as a fault. Exchanges settle when the settlement process completes, and a one hour timer describes a minimum rather than a promise. What the numbers establish is a precise, checkable record of when a deadline formally passed. Why a settled contract is better evidence than a live one This desk reports market prices as prices and never as forecasts it endorses. A settled contract is a different kind of object. There is no probability left in it and nothing to be right or wrong about. It records that a specific, publicly stated condition, release on PS5, Xbox Series X and S or Windows by 30 September 2026, was tested against the world and failed. That is the cleanest available dateline for the sentence "September came and went without Grand Theft Auto VI". The remaining figures describe how much money cared. Lifetime volume of 228,562.60 contracts, open interest of 165,979.11 at settlement and a final YES price of 0.0100, which is to say the market had long since stopped believing a September release was possible while still carrying very large open positions. Where this sits in the calendar This desk's own arithmetic: 2 October 2026, the date of the editor's fetch, is 48 days before the 19 November 2026 release date. The settlement itself landed on 1 October, which is 49 days before it. The contract's expected_expiration_time field still carries 2026-11-19T11:00:00Z, which is a leftover from the series template and is not a Rockstar statement about an unlock time. For this desk's running file on release date markets across two venues, see the news index. For the communities counting down, see the server list. Limits, stated plainly The fixed point fields are contracts, not dollars. volume_fp and open_interest_fp are Kalshi's own fields and this desk reports them as contract counts, because the API attaches no currency unit to either. A settlement is a record, not a prediction. Nothing in this article forecasts anything. The only claim is that a stated condition was tested and failed, which is why this piece exists while this desk continues to refuse to publish price based predictions. A missed deadline is not a delay. This contract asked about 30 September 2026, a date Rockstar never gave for Grand Theft Auto VI. Its NO resolution says nothing whatsoever about whether 19 November 2026 holds. The platform list is the exchange's. Kalshi's rule names PS5, Xbox Series X and S and Windows. The inclusion of Windows is the exchange's drafting and is not a Rockstar announcement about a PC release. One fetch, one instant. The fields above describe the response served at 2026-10-02T03:59:43Z. A finalised market should not change, but this desk states its reading time on every figure it prints. Retrieval method, disclosed. rockstargames.com/robots.txt disallows ClaudeBot by name. Kalshi's API is not a Rockstar property, but every fetch this desk makes, including this one, uses a standard desktop browser user agent against a specific public URL rather than crawling, and this desk discloses that in every batch.